Brazil grows more coffee than any other country, and this year it grew more than ever. In its September survey, Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, put the 2026 harvest at a record 67.6 million 60-kilo bags, up 19.6% on 2025. Arabica did the heavy lifting, up 34.8% to 48.2 million bags, about 70% of the total. Conilon, Brazil’s name for robusta, fell 6.6% to 19.4 million bags.
What an On-Year Means
Arabica trees in Brazil tend to alternate between a big crop and a smaller one, a pattern called biennial bearing. After a heavy year the trees need to recover, so the next harvest is lighter. 2026 is an on-year, and Conab credits that cycle along with well-spread rain and farmers’ growing use of better techniques. The productive area grew 5.1% to 1.95 million hectares, and the average yield rose 13.8%, from 30.4 to 34.6 bags a hectare.
Where It Grows
| State | Main crop | 2026 output (million 60-kilo bags) |
|---|---|---|
| Minas Gerais | Arabica | 34.96 |
| Espírito Santo | Conilon | 12.1 |
| São Paulo | Arabica | 6.19 |
| Bahia | Arabica and conilon | 4.49 |
| Rondônia | Conilon | 2.88 |
Minas Gerais alone produced almost 35 million bags, about half the country’s crop. Espírito Santo is the conilon heartland, and its conilon crop fell 14.3% this year, while Rondônia, in the Amazon region, grew its output by 24%. By late August, 99% of the planted area had been harvested. Brazil picks its coffee through the southern winter, roughly from May to September.
Other Estimates Run Higher
Other forecasters see an even bigger crop. US forecasters put Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest at 71.9 million bags, with arabica up 25% to 47.5 million and robusta down 2.4% to 24.4 million, and some private analysts go above 75 million. The arabica rebound ends five straight years of decline. Exports are expected to jump about 30%, to around 49 million bags, while Brazilians themselves drink about 22.4 million.
What It Means for Prices
A record crop from the biggest producer is the main reason arabica futures have fallen from over $3.70 a pound in January to about $2.89 at the end of September. The worry now is next year. Forecasters see high odds of a strong El Niño, which threatens the flowering that sets up the 2027 crop, and Brazil has form here: a frost in July 2021 hit the arabica areas of Minas Gerais and sent prices sharply higher. For the full picture, see coffee prices in September 2026.
For espresso drinkers, Brazil matters even more than its volume suggests. Its naturals and pulped naturals are the base of a great many espresso blends, so a big Brazilian year eventually shows up in the price of the coffee in your cortado.