Vietnam is the world’s second-biggest coffee producer after Brazil and the biggest grower of robusta. Most of it comes from the Central Highlands, around provinces like Dak Lak and Lam Dong, and nearly all of it is robusta. When that harvest is big, the price of robusta falls, and with it the cost of instant coffee and of the Italian-style espresso blends that use it.
The Numbers
| Season | Production (million 60-kilo bags) | Robusta | Exports |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 (estimate) | 31.7 | 30.5 | 28.5 |
| 2026/27 (forecast) | 32.5 | 31.4 | 28.95 |
With 29 million bags in 2024/25, that’s three years of growth in a row. Robusta area is forecast at about 644,000 hectares, up 2.2%, out of roughly 730,000 hectares of coffee in all. Vietnamese drinkers are expected to get through about 5 million bags themselves. In the first half of the 2025/26 season, exports ran 27.5% ahead of the year before, at 15.7 million bags, and Germany, Italy, the United States, Spain and Japan are among the main buyers.
Harvest Time
Vietnam’s robusta harvest starts in the autumn and runs into the new year, just as Brazil’s winds down. That’s why robusta traders watch the Central Highlands closely from September on. Weather earlier in the year matters too: below-normal rain in early 2026 was flagged as a risk to the coming crop.
Prices and Pressures
Robusta futures hit a record of more than $5,700 a tonne in early 2025. At the end of September 2026 they were around $3,400. Vietnam’s export prices have followed. They averaged $5,127 a tonne in the first half of the 2025/26 season, down 9%, and were $4,553 in March 2026, 22% lower than a year earlier. Farm-gate prices in the Central Highlands fell about 16%, while fertilizer and fuel costs rose about 30% and labor costs about a third.
There’s a longer-term problem too. About 30% of Vietnam’s coffee area is 20 years old or more and needs replanting, and heavy fertilizer use is a growing risk. On the other side, around 40% of the coffee area now carries a sustainability certification, and exporters are working on the traceability the EU deforestation rules will demand.
Arabica on the Horizon
Vietnam also grows a little arabica, about 1.1 million bags forecast for 2026/27. From the May 2027 contract, Vietnamese arabica becomes deliverable against the New York C contract. For now, though, Vietnam means robusta, and a big Vietnamese harvest means cheaper robusta for everyone else.